Let’s dive into how Google’s AI Overviews are changing the landscape of search traffic for publishers. It’s a complex picture, and while click-through rates (CTR) are often the go-to metric, keyword data is proving to be a more dependable indicator of these changes.
According to Semrush data, there’s been a staggering 91% increase in the number of keywords that now feature AI Overviews, reaching nearly 19 million. Searches that trigger these overviews have jumped from 6% in September 2024 to 11.4% by March 2025. This indicates a growing trend of content being summarized by AI Overviews, as noted by Eugene Levin, president of Semrush.
In the past six months, several publishers have seen a boost in their share of keywords featuring AI Overviews. ProPublica.org leads with a 204% increase, followed by BuzzFeed.com at 172%, and both Rolling Stone and Vanity Fair at 164%. NewRepublic.com isn’t far behind with a 156% rise. Despite these fluctuations, there’s no solid evidence that AI Overviews are cutting down referral traffic, although they’re not necessarily driving more traffic either. Levin points out, “There’s no statistical evidence that says, in aggregate, Google generates less traffic when there is an AI Overview. It generates roughly the same amount of traffic.”
Looking at the numbers from May 2024 to February 2025, ProPublica saw a 51.4% increase in organic global traffic. BuzzFeed’s traffic grew by 8.2%, while Rolling Stone and Vanity Fair experienced declines of 11.8% and 19.7%, respectively. On the other hand, NewRepublic.com enjoyed a 59.6% increase.
On a different note, a report from Tollbit, a marketplace for publishers and AI firms, highlighted a massive 95.7% drop in referral traffic from AI search bots compared to traditional Google search across 140 websites. However, this report didn’t include Google’s AI Overviews or its Gemini AI model.
Publishers and analytics firms are finding it tough to gauge the impact of AI Overviews because Google provides overall search referral data without specifics on these overviews. A publishing executive noted their Google Search referral traffic seemed “stable,” making it tricky to pinpoint the Overviews’ effect. Paul Bannister, chief strategy officer at Raptive, summed it up well: “All we can do is look at the aggregate and be like, ‘I don’t think it’s a negative, but I don’t know for sure.'”
Google previously mentioned that embedding direct links within Overviews was boosting publisher traffic, but they didn’t share any supporting data. The impact of AI Overviews largely depends on how publishers’ content appeared in Google search before Overviews and the targeted keywords. Levin explained, “You share this space with more people. So if you were the one who was in a featured snippet, then you would probably lose traffic. But if you were the one who was not in a featured snippet, you will probably gain traffic.”
In a Q4 2024 earnings call, Ziff Davis CEO Vivek Shah noted that AI Overviews appeared in only 12% of the company’s top queries, with no change in CTR. Similarly, IAC CEO Joey Levin reported AI Overviews in 20% of Dotdash Meredith’s searches but noticed minimal traffic impact.
However, assessing AI Overviews’ impact solely through keyword analysis has its limitations due to Google’s transparency issues and a volatile search environment. A publishing executive emphasized the questionable reliability of this method. The introduction of AI Mode to AI Overviews, which allows users to ask follow-up questions within the AI assistant, might change the dynamics yet again if widely implemented. Paul Hood, an AI media consultant and former News UK executive, put it well: “Let’s be clear — these tools aren’t ‘Search’ engines as we’ve come to know them, they are designed to be powerful ‘Answer’ engines.” He suggested that future growth lies in forming alliances that leverage both AI capabilities and traditional search benefits.
